Preakness

I really believed that Gun Runner was going to win the Kentucky Derby. Niquist is amazing, no doubt. But, Gun Runner is a better, faster horse.

The jockey fucked up that for him. He should have won. And now, today, he was pulled out of the Preakness and I'm really bummed about that.

Niquist is in his glory and has a great potential to move on to take the Triple Crown. Remember last year with American Pharoah !!! Victor Espinoza rode him like the champ he is. All fingers are crossed that this year we will have a Niquist crowned.


However ..... there's a huge problem for Niquist, and his name is Abiding Star. He got out of quarantine today, in fact, and he's going to be the one to give Niquist a run for the money. Abiding Star is undefeated, and has been in quarantine (along with numerous other horses) for over 3 weeks, and during that time, these horses have been practiced everyday. A racehorse doesn't get to lounge around, even in hospital. BUT - they have been well fed, well groomed and well rested ... whereas, the other contenders for Preakness have still been driven and pushed.

Abiding Star is going to come in and take Preakness ... my money is on him.

And then there's Exaggerator who has the wrong jockey on him. Kent Desormeaux is a fantastic jockey, but, his strategy doesn't work for Exaggerator. Kent D. kept him in the back of the pack to try and reserve his energy, then charge him forward in the last pass for the win (he placed at the Derby) ... and that's all wrong for this monster horse. He's not a sprinter.

Go watch a youtube video on Exaggerator and you will see how he is so strong of a lead that nobody ever catches him. You will see him 4 horse lengths ahead and he's prancing, sipping a cup of tea .. while the rest of the pack behind him are foaming at the mouth and running their asses off. He can't play short stack, it's just not in his game.

Exaggerator is capable of taking Preakness, if his jokey leaps forward to front from gate.

And don't take your eyes off Awesome Speed. For those who like and watch horses (like me), notice when you see horses move their necks/heads is smooth sync with their strides, compared to other horses who seem jerky with their heads and necks, like it's much more of a strain to be running so hard. Awesome Speed seems like he's dancing, his strides and movements are so at ease. He's being run at top speed (which is around 38/39 mph) and he's perfectly calm and still dancing.


The bad part about this leg of the race is the location and time of year .... it's ALWAYS raining in Baltimore in mid to late May.


Anyone else watch the horses?

Early odds for those interested ......

Niquist 4/6
Exaggerator 7/2

Another favorite is Collected, who came in 4 out of 6 starts and he has been trained by Bob Baffert, and coming from the Speedway Stables and being a Baffert horse makes him an automatic favorite. His early odds are 12/1 .. which right now makes him a long-shot, but, his odds are expected to improve over the next couple days.

Also, Stradivani has good early odds at 7/1, who came in 2 out of 3. That's pretty damn good, though he's not as strong of a runner as the others, right now he's still expected to Show.

the only two horses that are committed are Niquist and Exaggerator .... tomorrow is the dead line, but, they aren't expecting anyone to pull out.

This afternoon they will draw for post line up.


Just for info, in case someone is interested ...... the Preakness, though, it's very important considering it's necessary for the winning of the Triple Crown ... it's not paramount for any horse to win except 1. the Derby winner, and bragging rights for showing casing horses.

Otherwise .... there's not much value or benefit to run this Stake. So most stables don't run this, unless one of the two above applies. The logic is, the unnecessary strain the horse. Though the horse loves to run, there's no doubting that .. however, during a typical race, the horse will lose in the ballpark of 50 pounds. And that's ALOT.

There are numerous factors that go into how they determine if the horse is ready, but, the first rule of thumb is to observe their food intake immediately after a race ... which they are fed immediately. If the horse eats all, then they are still primed and ready .. if he's not eating good, then he's diminished and cannot race.

The other determination is the tightness and temperature of their leg joints. The goal is to have very tight and cold legs. If they are swollen or warm, then the horse cannot run again until his joints are at prime condition - tight and cold.


Anyway, as of right now, here's the prediction:

w-Niquist
p- Exaggerator
s- Collected